Dr Adrian Saville – Chief executive of Cannon Asset Managers“Forecasting is a dangerous activity. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t think about the future. Instead, know that the future will be filled with unexpected shocks and surprises – sometimes good, sometimes bad, but always unknowable ahead of time. 

“The implication is that investments should not be built for the known or the widely anticipated. Rather, they must be built to withstand the harshest and worst circumstances. 

“To quote Nassim Nicholas Taleb: ‘To not foresee a tsunami or a crash is forgivable; to build something fragile is not’. 

“On this, one of the most powerful protectors of investments against the unknowable future is portfolio diversification.” (Emphasis supplied)

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